Shankar is a daily-wage worker. Married with three kids, he is as good a husband and father as can be expected. There is nothing overtly toxic about him. He is a product of his times without being an asshole. Every evening, after work, he stops at the local government-run liquor store where he shares a 180ml bottle of whiskey with a co-worker before making his way home. For four years, they stop at the same store and buy the same local brand, but that Tuesday would be different. After spending some time talking to his wife and kids, he had his usual dinner of rice gruel with pickle before lying down on a thin straw mat to sleep. The next morning, he was found dead frothing from his mouth. A few meters away, a similar scene was playing out at his friend’s house. It didn’t stop there. The haunting wails of women moaning the death of their husbands and sons arose like a collective prayer from the locality.
It wasn’t long before the television news channels caught on to the tragedy unfolding in the city. Reporters were dispatched to interview relatives, friends, and neighbors of the affected people. In the studios, anchors perched behind their desks like vultures on branches ranted and railed against spurious liquor, irresponsible behavior of the drinkers, evil profit-seeking liquor distillers, and anyone else they could think of. Everyone but the real culprit was blamed.
Now let me tell you another story. Don’t skip over it thinking it is the same as the earlier story. There is a key difference.
Shankar is a daily wage worker. Married with three kids, he is as good a husband and father as can be expected. There is nothing overtly toxic about him. He is a product of his times without being an asshole. Every evening, after work, he stops at a roadside tea shop where he has tea with a co-worker before making his way home. For four years, they stop at the same tea stall and drink tea, but that Tuesday would be different. After spending some time talking to his wife and kids, he had his usual dinner of rice gruel with pickle before lying down on a thin straw mat to sleep. The next morning, he was found dead frothing from his mouth. A few meters away, a similar scene was playing out at his friend’s house. It didn’t stop there. The haunting wails of women moaning the death of their husbands and sons arose like a collective prayer from the locality.
Before we ascribe fault, let us stop and study the incentives of the various actors in this tragic play. Shankar and his friend are two normal people who have their own best interests at heart. They did not set out that Tuesday saying they were going to find the most dangerous liquor store or tea stall. They were actually making a very good decision. They were buying from a known vendor – someone they had bought from earlier. The liquor distiller or tea maker did not wake up that Tuesday morning saying they would add poisons to their products to kill their customers. In fact, it is in their interest to make the safest liquor or tea. You don’t build a business by killing your customer, you do it by keeping your customer safe. Nobody in this story has more reason to care for the well-being and health of Shankar and his friend as much as the producers of the goods and services they buy.
Now let us look at the other actors in this play – the people working at the government liquor store and the tea stall owner. Unlike the tea stall owner, the people in the government-run liquor store are paid government employees. They will receive a salary irrespective of whether their customers live or die. If a private entrepreneur ran the liquor store, it would have been in his best interest to ensure all the liquor in his store was safe, just like the tea-stall owner.
Sitting in living rooms and television studios it is easy to pontificate on the behaviors of people whose lives we don’t understand or take the trouble to understand. We don’t see ourselves in Shankar and his friend. However, we do see ourselves in the victims of an airplane crash, for instance. That is why we don’t shame the victims of a plane crash as we do Shankar and his friend. But if you stop and think, the behaviors are the same. Nobody chooses an unsafe airline. 2014 was a bad year for Malaysian Airlines which lost two planes – MH370 and MH17. In a bid to revive their business, Malaysian Airlines had to cut prices to such an extent that business class seats in MA were cheaper than economy seats in other airlines.
Events such as death from ingesting spurious foods and plane crashes are typical black swan events – difficult to predict but seem inevitable in hindsight.
*All characters are fictional. They are meant to be aggregates of common people you run across.
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